Almost every buyer I meet wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal right now. And almost every seller wants to know if they’ll still get top dollar. Here’s the funny part: both can be right at the exact same time. It all depends on where you live. So instead of guessing, let me hand you the numbers that actually decide who has the upper hand.
1 number that tells the whole story: months’ supply
If you only learn one real estate stat, make it this one. Months’ supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home currently on the market, at today’s pace of demand, if not a single new listing were added. It’s the clearest read on who has the leverage, and therefore what strategy you’ll need.
Under 4, 4 to 6, and over 6
Here’s how to read it, and it’s refreshingly simple:
- Fewer than 4 months — sellers usually have the advantage.
- 4 to 6 months — buyers and sellers are on more equal footing.
- More than 6 months — buyers can usually negotiate a better deal.
That’s the whole decoder ring. Keep those three ranges in your back pocket and you’ll understand more about your local market than most people ever do.
4.6 months: where the whole country sits today
Right now, according to the National Association of Realtors, the national months’ supply is 4.6. That lands squarely in balanced territory. After years of being tilted hard in sellers’ favor, the market as a whole has finally settled back into a more even range. It may look like the scales moved only a little, but even a small shift changes the strategy you’ll need for your move.
Nearly 6 years: how long since it’s been this buyer-friendly
Redfin’s data breaks the country down city by city, and the pattern is striking: a lot more places are leaning buyer-friendly than they have in a long time. In fact, this is the most buyer-friendly the national market has looked in nearly six years. But, and this is a big but, that does not mean buyers hold the upper hand everywhere. Plenty of cities still clearly favor sellers, and if you’re in one of those, your game plan looks completely different.
Buyer-friendly metros in blue, seller-friendly in orange, balanced in gray. Source: Redfin.
3.37 months: the number that matters most to us
Here’s where I have to bring it home, literally. That 4.6 national figure is a great headline, but it is not our number. As of the latest local data, the Puget Sound area has been sitting closer to 3.37 months of supply. Look back at the decoder ring above and you’ll see what that means: below 4 months still leans toward sellers. So while much of the country has tipped toward buyers, a lot of our neighborhoods are still seller-leaning, even as inventory here grows.
And even that regional number hides a lot. Kitsap and Pierce have been tighter still, while other pockets have loosened up. This is exactly why a national headline can be true and useless to you at the same time.
The one mistake to avoid
So what’s the biggest mistake you can make right now? It’s not assuming it’s finally a buyer’s market. And it’s not assuming it’s still a seller’s market. It’s making any assumption without checking your actual, local number first. In one neighborhood a buyer is collecting thousands in seller concessions; a mile away a seller is fielding multiple offers with prices inching up. Same overall market, completely different playbooks. Your plan has to be built on your block, and that’s where having a local agent in your corner matters more now than it has in years.
A few quick questions I’m getting
What is months’ supply in real estate?
It’s how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale at today’s pace, if no new listings were added. Under 4 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers.
Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?
Nationally, months’ supply is about 4.6, which is balanced, the most buyer-friendly in nearly six years. But it’s local: some metros favor buyers, some still favor sellers. Around Seattle, inventory has been tighter than the national number, so many neighborhoods still lean toward sellers.
Does a balanced national market mean my area is balanced?
Not necessarily. A national average hides big local differences. In one metro a buyer is getting thousands in concessions; in another sellers still see rising prices and multiple offers. Your strategy has to be based on your specific neighborhood.
Want to know your number?
If you’re wondering who really has the upper hand where we live, let’s talk. I’ll show you exactly what months’ supply and the other numbers look like in our market, right down to your neighborhood, and what strategy gives you the best shot at getting what you want. Reach me and the team anytime at [email protected].
Rebecca “Reba” Haas has been helping people buy, sell, and invest across the Seattle area and greater Puget Sound since 2003. She leads Team Reba at RE/MAX Metro Eastside.
Sources: National Association of Realtors (months’ supply); Redfin (metro buyer/seller breakdown); local months of inventory via Northwest Multiple Listing Service. This article is general information, not financial, tax, or legal advice; consult a professional about your specific situation.
